Trump, Cruz Tied Among Evangelical Voters

April 07, 2016

Throughout this crazy presidential campaign, the main religion story continues to be how Republican frontrunner Donald Trump wins evangelicals despite his image as a vulgar, thrice-married casino magnate. However, the story's more complex than often told. As I noted in articles last month, Trump performs poorly among evangelicals who actually attend church frequently and performs poorly among evangelicals in the Midwest.

My latest takes a deep dive into the voting data and discovers something important: Trump's not actually winning among evangelicals anymore. For the article, Trump, Cruz Tied Among Evangelical Voters, I extrapolated exit poll data to the total raw votes and found Trump and Cruz statically tied among evangelicals in the 21 states with exit polls. Additionally, Cruz has a slight advantage in the 11 states without exit polls. Thus, it's clearly inaccurate to claim Trump is winning evangelicals.

The article also includes the map I created of where Trump has won (red) evangelicals and where he has lost (blue). I hope the article will help end a continuing media myth about evangelical voters.